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Star players opting out of bowl games has become a common theme over the last few years. One of the biggest names to do so this year so far is Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, who has a chance to be the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft. How should Oregon not having its best player affect your college football bowl confidence picks? The No. 14 Ducks will take on the No. 16 Oklahoma Sooners on Dec. 29 in the 2021 Alamo Bowl.
That is just one of many games on the 2021-22 college football bowl schedule where one single player opting out could swing the line. Being knowledgeable of who’s in and who’s out will serve you well when entering any college bowl pick’em contests. Before making any college football predictions for bowl season, be sure to see the bowl confidence pool picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-29 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now it has simulated each matchup on the 2021-22 college football bowl schedule 10,000 times and assigned a confidence rating to each game. You can only see all the college football bowl picks over at SportsLine.
Top college football bowl confidence predictions
One of the top 2021-22 college football bowl confidence picks from the model: No. 25 Texas A&M gets the win over No. 17 Wake Forest in the 2021 Gator Bowl on Dec. 31 at 11 a.m. ET. It was a banner year for Dave Clawson and the Demon Deacons, as the program reached 10 wins for the first time since 2006 and won the ACC Atlantic. However, Clawson’s offense sputtered at times down the stretch and even when it was clicking, the defense was mostly bad.
After starting 8-0, Wake Forest lost three of its last five games and the defense gave up 40.6 points per game during that stretch. The Demon Deacons gave up 58 in a loss to North Carolina, 48 in a loss to Clemson and 45 in a loss to Pitt in the ACC Championship Game. Now they’ll be taking on one of the better defenses they’ve played all season and the Aggies have put up at least 34 points on six occasions this year, so they should be able to take advantage of that leaky Wake Forest defense.
The model is predicting that Zach Calzada throws for over 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns while Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane combine for over 170 yards rushing. That’s a big reason why the Aggies win in over 70 percent of simulations with the final score projected at 29-22.
Another one of the bowl confidence predictions the model is high on: Virginia Tech defeats the Maryland Terrapins in the Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 29 at 2:15 p.m. ET. These are former ACC rivals and the Hokies have won five of the last six matchups, dating back to 1993.
Virginia Tech (6-6) will be led by interim coach J.C. Price, who went 1-1 down the stretch. The Hokies had the ACC’s fourth-best scoring defense and have a multi-talented player under center in Braxton Burmeister. He had an up-and-down season but seemed to find his groove over the second half of the year as he posted eight TDs vs. one INT over the last six games. He’s also just one of a dozen Power Five quarterbacks to have at least 1,800 passing yards and 500 rushing yards.
Meanwhile, Maryland (6-6) had the Big Ten’s second worst defense and its 32.4 points allowed per game ranked 105th out of 130 FBS teams. The combined record of the teams it defeated is 28-44 as the Terrapins don’t have a single win over a Power Five school with a winning record. The model predicts that Burmeister puts up over 250 total yards of offense and accounts for two touchdowns. On the other hand, Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa is projected to have as many turnovers as touchdowns, as the model has the Hokies winning in almost 70 percent of simulations.
How to make college football bowl confidence picks
The model has also made the call on who wins every other bowl game. There are four teams that win at least 75 percent of the time, so you need to go big on those matchups, as well as multiple underdogs that win outright. You can get all the model’s picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins every college football bowl game? And which matchups should you assign the most confidence points to? Visit SportsLine to see the full college football bowl confidence picks, all from the model that is up almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football spread picks over the past five-plus season, and find out.